In a new chapter of a never-ending story, this Friday two of the three benchmark currencies in the Cuban informal market woke up with price increases.
The euro rises from 400 to 402.5 CUP, with an increase of 2.5 pesos, as documented today by elToque in the daily rate that reports on price fluctuations of currencies in the informal market.
On the other hand, the average selling price of Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) increased by five pesos all at once, after remaining at 300 pesos for six days, it is now valued today at 305 CUP.
Only the dollar remains stable this May 10, continuing at 395 CUP per unit, a value it reached the previous day.
Exchange rate today 10/05/2024 - 7:35 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 395 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 402.5 CUP.
MLC to CUP exchange rate according to elTOQUE: 305 CUP.
Alternative exchange rate from other platforms:
Dollar (USD) exchange rate: Buy 391 CUP, Sell 393 CUP.
Exchange rate for Euro (EUR): Buy 400 CUP, Sell 400 CUP.
MLC exchange rate: Buy 301 CUP, Sell 301 CUP.
The informal exchange rate of Cuba offered here is not officially recognized or backed by any financial or governmental entity.
The Cuban peso continues its relentless march toward the abyss
A detailed article published yesterday by elToque describes what it calls a "strong turbulence" experienced by the foreign exchange market in Cuba in April.
"April 2024 marked a high point in the devaluation of the Cuban peso," said elToque, which noted that the rise in informal exchange rates last month represents the largest monthly depreciation of the Cuban peso so far this year.
In percentage terms, in April the Cuban peso depreciated more than 13% relative to the dollar and the euro, and more than 5% against the MLC.
During April, on three occasions the rate increased by 5 CUP in a single day in relation to the dollar and twice in relation to the euro.
According to analysts at the Observatory of Currencies and Finances of Cuba (OMFi), the rapid depreciation of the Cuban peso in April was due to four factors that are part of the country's economic and financial crisis: "rising inflation, stagnant production and exports, high fiscal deficit, and emigration."
In the first quarter of 2024, the categories of food, transportation, and alcoholic beverages recorded the most significant increases, with inflation rates considerably higher than the general CPI.
Another cause of the devaluation of the Cuban peso would be the sluggish recovery of tourism, the fact that goods exports have fallen below expectations, and the sugar harvest continues to fail to stabilize its production, emphasizes the aforementioned independent outlet.
According to elToque, the migratory wave would also be an aggravating factor that shows no signs of abating and entails additional demand for foreign currency in the informal market.
Trend of devaluation could persist for the remainder of May
The OMFi models "predict that the depreciation trend could continue in May and forecast that the informal exchange rate could be around 417-427 CUP per dollar, 422-433 CUP per euro, and 316-324 CUP per MLC by the end of the month.
Nevertheless, they also suggest that a slowdown in the rate of peso depreciation is likely in the coming months.
As the informal price of currencies continues without a ceiling in Cuba, inflation also remains uncontrolled, leaving a bleak outlook in which Cubans see their purchasing power diminish day by day.
In the midst of this scenario, the Cuban regime seems to be in a dead end, unable to offer economic solutions to the problem and opting to blame elToque for the devaluation of the CUP.
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